Black Sox Blog

Earlier this past weekend, I talked about how the guys at Baseball Analyst, along with bloggers Aaron Gleeman and Brian Borawski, basically gave the White Sox no chance of competing for the division. Two of them picked the Sox to finish third, and two picked them to finish fourth.

Well, I got my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 today and immediately turned to the White Sox section. After a nice narrative of the failures over the last three years, it then goes into the moves Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen made during the offseason, notably the trade sending Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednick. I really did a double take when I read the final sentence of the team narrative:

“The new master plan might be a bold stroke, but it’s the sort of gamble that will more likely have the Sox keeping the Royals company in the basement than finally getting them back to the top of the standings.”

Ouch.

Needless to say, the guys at Baseball Prospectus have never been a fan for small ball. For that matter, neither have I. Based on PECOTA, here’s the VORP of our two biggest losses, along with the VORP of the two guys who will be replacing them.

Magglio Ordonez 30.5
Carlos Lee 25.7

Scott Podsednick 17.7
Jermaine Dye 11.2

The difference between those number is around 35. That equates to a loss of about three wins, and that’s not good when you’ve been battling the .500 the last few years. And the Ordonez number is based on 396 at bats. If he get back up into the 500s, he could easily end up with a VORP of 50, meaning a net loss of five wins.

Just a few other quick notes on the White Sox in the book:

CF prospect Brian Anderson has a projected VORP of 15.5. That’s only a couple of runs less then Podsednick, making the trade look even more fruitless.

Frank Thomas is projected to land at 274 at bats, but his main numbers, including a .399 OBP, are quite good.

Freddy Garcia is expected to be right where he’s been the last few years. His projected 30.5 VORP is right in line with what he’s accomplished the last few seasons.

If you’ve never bought the Baseball Prospectus book, I’d highly recommend. The writing is excellent, with a mix of humor, stats, and as always, a ton of baseball. For the $12 and change you pay, you get a great resource and a ton of information.

SABR members might be aware of this, but a lot of other people might not. The Baseball Biography Project is a committee of SABR dedicated to compiling biographies on every major league player. They have a long way to go, but the work is exceptional. Two of the players I discussed in yesterdays Lookback have biographies completed, so if you’re interested in this genre, I highly recommend you check these out:

Dummy Hoy
Fielder Jones

Record – 83-53, Finished First Place in the American League
Pythagorean Record – 84-52

Starters (Note – I couldn’t find a set lineup, so I’m listing the players who got the most time at their respective positions)

Hitters (BA/OBP/SLG)

C – Billy Sullivan (.245/.271/.351)
1b – Frank Isbell (.257/.311/.329)
2b – Sam Mertes (.277/.347/.396)
3b – Fred Hartmen (.309/.355/.431)
SS – Frank Shugart (.251/.301/.345)
LF – Herm McFarland (.275/.384/.383)
CF – Dummy Hoy (.294/.407/.400)
RF – Fielder Jones (.311/.412/.365)

Team Leaders

Homeruns – Sam Mertes (5)
Batting Average – Fielder Jones (.311)
OPS – Dummy Hoy (.807)
Best Fielder – Frank Isbell (17 Fielding Runs Above Average)

Pitchers (IP/W/ERA)

SP – Roy Patterson (312.3/20/3.37)
SP – Clark Griffith (266.7/24/2.67)
SP – Jack Katoll (208/11/2.81)
SP – Nixey Callahan (215.3/15/2.42)
RP – Zaz Harvey (92/3/3.62)

Team Leaders

Wins – Clark Griffith (24)
ERA – Nixey Callahan (2.42)
Strikeouts – Roy Patterson (127)

Synopsis

The 1901 Chicago White Sox won the American League Pennant their first year of existance. Led by the bats of Fielder Jones and Dummy Hoy, the team led the league in runs scored (809) and stolen bases (280), and they were second in OBP (.350) Hoy and Jones were first and second in walks and were second and third in the league in Times on Base.