Earlier this past weekend, I talked about how the guys at Baseball Analyst, along with bloggers Aaron Gleeman and Brian Borawski, basically gave the White Sox no chance of competing for the division. Two of them picked the Sox to finish third, and two picked them to finish fourth.
Well, I got my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 today and immediately turned to the White Sox section. After a nice narrative of the failures over the last three years, it then goes into the moves Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen made during the offseason, notably the trade sending Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednick. I really did a double take when I read the final sentence of the team narrative:
“The new master plan might be a bold stroke, but it’s the sort of gamble that will more likely have the Sox keeping the Royals company in the basement than finally getting them back to the top of the standings.”
Ouch.
Needless to say, the guys at Baseball Prospectus have never been a fan for small ball. For that matter, neither have I. Based on PECOTA, here’s the VORP of our two biggest losses, along with the VORP of the two guys who will be replacing them.
Magglio Ordonez 30.5
Carlos Lee 25.7
Scott Podsednick 17.7
Jermaine Dye 11.2
The difference between those number is around 35. That equates to a loss of about three wins, and that’s not good when you’ve been battling the .500 the last few years. And the Ordonez number is based on 396 at bats. If he get back up into the 500s, he could easily end up with a VORP of 50, meaning a net loss of five wins.
Just a few other quick notes on the White Sox in the book:
CF prospect Brian Anderson has a projected VORP of 15.5. That’s only a couple of runs less then Podsednick, making the trade look even more fruitless.
Frank Thomas is projected to land at 274 at bats, but his main numbers, including a .399 OBP, are quite good.
Freddy Garcia is expected to be right where he’s been the last few years. His projected 30.5 VORP is right in line with what he’s accomplished the last few seasons.
If you’ve never bought the Baseball Prospectus book, I’d highly recommend. The writing is excellent, with a mix of humor, stats, and as always, a ton of baseball. For the $12 and change you pay, you get a great resource and a ton of information.
March 1st, 2005 at 7:30 pm
I love BP, but they totally messed Cleveland last year (“I don’t see where the runs are coming from”) and, in a way Bill James never was, they have become arrogant beyond all imagination.
October 14th, 2005 at 6:02 am
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February 9th, 2006 at 3:53 am
[...] Here’s a nice column on the White Sox outfield situation. I’ve always been a big Brian Anderson fan and thought the trade for Scott Podsednik was a waste so I’m glad he’s finally getting his shot. [link] [...]