Comments on: White Sox Head to Boston After Taking Two at Yankee Stadium http://www.blacksoxblog.com/white-sox-head-to-boston-after-taking-two-at-yankee-stadium/ From Joe Jackson to Frank Thomas, A Look at the Chicago White Sox, Both Past and Present Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:27:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tybor http://www.blacksoxblog.com/white-sox-head-to-boston-after-taking-two-at-yankee-stadium/comment-page-1/#comment-28 Tybor Sat, 13 Aug 2005 21:25:00 +0000 http://www.blacksoxblog.com/?p=116#comment-28 I think that putting the White Sox on "pace for 106 wins" is a little misguided. For one, the Sox are only a handful of games over .500 over the last month and a half. Second, the loss of Frank Thomas limits the offense by about a quarter of a run per game. Finally, when you consider the expected regression to the mean in their record in one-run ballgames, you have to temper that estimate a bit. Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season peg them for 98-99 wins. I guess if you have any die-hard friends, the percentage play would be to set an over/under of 101.5 and have them pick the over. Probably an easy $25. I think that putting the White Sox on “pace for 106 wins” is a little misguided. For one, the Sox are only a handful of games over .500 over the last month and a half. Second, the loss of Frank Thomas limits the offense by about a quarter of a run per game. Finally, when you consider the expected regression to the mean in their record in one-run ballgames, you have to temper that estimate a bit.

Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season peg them for 98-99 wins. I guess if you have any die-hard friends, the percentage play would be to set an over/under of 101.5 and have them pick the over. Probably an easy $25.

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